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Foundations of O.R: Statistical Methods in O.R.: Forecasting

  Ref. 543  
  Katy Hoad
  24 April 2018, Birmingham
  £575 + VAT Members
  £625 + VAT Non-members


   Foundation NA

Foundations of O.R. Courses     

The purpose of the series of ‘Foundations of O.R.’ courses is to help practitioners to understand the role of Operational Research in management; understand the requirements for successful Operational Research interventions; have knowledge of a range of Operational Research techniques; be able to identify the suitability of a technique for a problem situation and be able to apply those techniques.

Civil Servants / Members of the Government O.R. Service need to book these courses through the Civil Service Learning portal. (Go to

The purpose of this day is to develop a critical and practical understanding of Business Forecasting processes, with a focus on short-medium term extrapolation forecasting methods.

Forecasting is all about predicting future events.  We will learn about some of the forecasting methods used to predict the uncertain nature of business trends in an effort to help managers make better decisions and plans.  For example, all organisations need to estimate the future demand for their products or services, in order to be able to plan their operations (staff numbers/makeup, finance, assets, inventory, marketing plans including promotions and prices, etc…). By the end of the day you should have a good overview of the various different methods available for making different types of forecasts, as well as having practiced carrying out some techniques yourself using simple statistical software.

The objectives for the day are to:

  • Appreciate the underlying assumptions of forecasting methods.
  • Learn about the main characteristics of time series data.
  • Learn about various short-term forecast methods, including moving average (MA), exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and extensions of EWMA for trend and seasonality.
  • Learn to apply dummy variables in regression (a short- medium term forecast method) to model data with trend and / or seasonality.
  • Understand how to assess forecast accuracy.
  • Learn about some long-term forecast methods and appreciate the differences between these methods and the short-term methods previously covered.

The topics covered during the day are:

  • The two main types of forecasting methodology
  • General steps for carrying out Forecasting
  • Exploring the characteristics of time series data
  • Introduction to assessing forecast accuracy and measurement of error.
  • Forecasting with Local Linear Models
  • Forecasting using Regression models.
  • Long-term forecasting – an introduction to some judgemental methods

If you are interested in further information, have any requirements (e.g. an alternative course date), or have difficulty booking a course online then please contact Jennie Phelps. It is recommended that courses are booked online. If this is not possible, then please print off, fill and fax or post the Training Course Booking Form.

Jennie Phelps   Address:  The OR Society, Seymour House, 12 Edward Street, Birmingham, B1 2RX, UK
  Tel: +44 (0)121 233 9300
  Fax: +44 (0)121 233 0321