Citation for the KD Tocher Medal 2025
Lucy E. Morgan, Barry L. Nelson, Andrew C. Titman, David J. Worthington
A spline function method for modelling and generating a nonhomogeneous poisson process
Journal of Simulation, Volume 18 (4), 557-568
https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2224928
Morgan et al. addresses a significant challenge in simulation input modelling by developing methodological innovation, providing the first systematic spline-based approach for NHPP rate function estimation with penalised likelihood. The technical quality is exceptional, demonstrated through comprehensive comparative evaluation, systematic treatment of input modelling error propagation, and robust experimental design. The real-world impact could influence how the simulation community approaches NHPP input modelling with broad applicability. The writing is excellent, effectively bridging theoretical development with practical implementation concerns through clear mathematical exposition and appropriate experimental presentation.