A combined event organized by SIG Simulation, Decision and Cognitive Sciences Research Centre (DCSRC), and North West Regional SIG. Prof Paul Fishwick’s visit to the UK is funded by the Leverhulme Trust Visiting Professorship award with University of Exeter Business School.
Programme:
12:00-13:00: Lunch and registration
13:00-14:00: Paul Fishwick (UT Dallas) - The Art and Science of Modelling
14:00-14:30: Andi Smart (Exeter) – Enhancing Visitor Experience at Cultural Heritage Sites: Hybrid Systems Approach Incorporating Gaze-time Data with Computer Simulation
14:30-15:00: Nathan Proudlove (Manchester) - Modelling Patient Flows: Developing BPMN for Fit-for-purpose Operational Flow Mapping
15:00-15:30: Break
15:00-16:00: Enabling Real-time Simulation using Symbiotic Simulation, NHSquicker and Demand Forecasting (Navonil Mustafee (Exeter), Alisson Harper (Exeter) and Stephan Onggo (Trinity College Dublin)
16:00-16:30: Closing (informal discussion + tea/coffee + we may go to a pub afterward)
Programme Detail
The Art and Science of Modelling (Paul Fishwick, UT Dallas)
One of the characteristics of being human is to model. In our history, we began with representations of animals made from natural materials, and painted on cave walls. We also made regular marks on animal bones. While the modern accounting of these products is art (animal representations) and mathematics (bone marks), a more comprehensive understanding points to modelling in both cases. We saw or imagined things, and then we made models of our experience. This talk will be a non-technical, cross-disciplinary, introduction to modelling. I will discuss (1) the history of modelling, (2) a way of thinking about modelling using three broad categories, (3) the notion that computer and information science is a form of modelling, and (4) approaches to modelling across disciplines – from art and humanities to business, science, and engineering.
BIOGRAPHY: Paul Fishwick is Distinguished University Chair of Arts and Technology (ATEC), and Professor of Computer Science. He has six years of industry experience as a systems analyst working at Newport News Shipbuilding and at NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. He was on the faculty at the University of Florida from 1986 to 2012, and was Director of the Digital Arts and Sciences Programs. His PhD was in Computer and Information Science from the University of Pennsylvania. Fishwick is active in modelling and simulation, as well as in the bridge areas spanning art, science, and engineering. He pioneered the area of aesthetic computing, resulting in an MIT Press edited volume in 2006. He is a Fellow of the Society for Computer Simulation, served as General Chair of the Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), was a WSC Titan Speaker in 2009, and has delivered over 24 keynote addresses at international conferences. He was Chair of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) Special Interest Group in Simulation (SIGSIM) four years from 2012 to 2016. Fishwick has over 230 technical publications and has served on all major archival journal editorial boards related to simulation, including ACM Transactions on Modeling and Simulation (TOMACS) where he was a founding area editor of modelling methodology in 1990. He is CEO of Metaphorz, LLC which assists the State of Florida in its catastrophe modelling software engineering auditing process for risk-based simulation for hurricanes and floods.
Enhancing Visitor Experience at Cultural Heritage Sites: Hybrid Systems Approach Incorporating Gaze-time Data with Computer Simulation (Andi Smart, Exeter)
The VISTA AR project (Interreg FCE programme) focuses on the use of digital technologies to enhance the visitor experience and to develop innovative business models for cultural heritage sites. This talk focuses on the development of a hybrid systems model using visitor intelligence (VI), gaze-time and computer simulation. VI tools are focused on understanding the visitor journey and experience. The visitor journey analysis includes assessing dwell-time and gaze-time.
A pilot study was undertaken in Exeter cathedral to capture the customer journey and included the use of eye-tracking technology to capture gaze-time of particular artefacts. The analysis of gaze duration was undertaken using heat-maps, which were indicative of the visitors' attention and interest. A particular challenge is communicating these results to management. A simulation model was developed to allow the presentation of the visitor journey. This allows management to observe the pattern of visitor journeys and the interest in different artefacts. The simulation model conforms to a ‘hybrid’ approach in that the data exported from the vision analysis software (Tobii Pro) directly informs duration activity (dwell-time and gaze-time). The sequence within the model is also derived from the vision data. A Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model, superimposed on a map of the building, was constructed using this data.
Modelling patient flows: Developing BPMN for fit-for-purpose operational flow mapping (Nathan Proudlove, Manchester)
Process mapping is a central tool in the understanding, improvement and design of processes. Different approaches have developed within different disciplines, in particular Value Stream Mapping in operations management, Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) in enterprise information systems, and activity cycle/process flow diagrams for discrete-event simulation (DES) in operational research. Mapping patient pathways is a key tool in healthcare quality improvement, sometimes as a precursor to DES modelling. However, there is little formal guidance or widely-used approach. This work arises from projects involving process mapping in several hospitals. We find that BPMN tools are potentially very useful and provide nascent automated links to DES modelling for process improvement, but the treatment of important issues in flow (in particular queues/buffers/waste) is naïve and restrictive. We propose that some extensions to the BPMN object set to bring in operations management thinking and accommodate flow structures as found in, for example, hospitals, would produce a powerful, fit-for-purpose process mapping toolkit.
Enabling Real-time Simulation using Symbiotic Simulation, NHSquicker and Demand Forecasting (Navonil Mustafee (Exeter) and Stephan Onggo (Trinity College Dublin)
Symbiotic simulation is one of Industry 4.0 technologies that enables a close relationship between a physical system and the simulation model that represents it as its digital twin. Symbiotic simulation is designed to support decision making at the operational levels by making use of real- or near real- time data which are only available after the simulation model has been developed. From the modelling perspective, a symbiotic simulation system comprises a hybrid model that combines simulation, optimization and machine learning models as well as a data acquisition module and an actuator. The actuator is needed when the symbiotic simulation system is designed to directly control the physical system without any human intervention. This talk reviews the components of a symbiotic simulation system from the perspective of hybrid modelling. Examples within health care will be presented including NHSQuicker, demand forecasting for urgent care, and hospital bed management.
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