(Early) Christmas meeting - seminar, pub quiz and dinner
Venue: School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
Speaker: Dr Leanne Smith
Date: Thursday, 29 November 2018 at 17:15 - 21:00
Data-driven decision-making for operations and strategy at the London Ambulance Service
Dr Leanne Smith, Head of Forecasting and Planning, London Ambulance Service
Followed by Quiz and Dinner
The next SWORDS meeting of the 2018-2019 programme is scheduled for Thursday the 29th of November 2018. The meeting will be held at the Mathematics Institute, Cardiff University. There will be drinks available from 5.30pm in the Internet Café which is just inside the main entrance to the Mathematics Institute. The talk will commence at 6.00pm in room M/0.34 (ground floor). This will be followed by a quiz and food.
There is a £5 charge for the social. We need to know in advance who is coming so please let me know ASAP if you wish to attend. Also let me know if you have any dietary requirements.
Please contact Jonathan Thompson, tel: 029-20875524. E-Mail: ThompsonJM1 [at] cardiff.ac.uk
Abstract
The London Ambulance Service is one of the busiest emergency medical services in the world. Making sure we respond quickly and efficiently to our population is our highest priority, but as for any public service, ensuring we get the best value and provide the highest quality care for the money available to us is an important factor in our decision making. The Forecasting & Planning team have been devising predictive models and developing analytical tools to help support this decision making process at operational, tactical and strategic levels. This talk offers an insight to some of the team’s recent projects, the challenges we’ve faced, and some thoughts on the current and future directions of such a function within the healthcare service.
Visit to British Telecom International Data Centre
Venue: BT Cardiff International Data Centre, Ty Cannal, Watkiss Way, Cardiff, CF11 0SW
Date: Thursday, 07 June 2018 at 13:00
There will be a SWORDS visit to the British Telecom International Data Centre on the 7th of June starting at 1pm. The visit will include a tour of the Data Centre and three short presentations on Security, Online (BT.com) and Data.
There are a limited number of places available. To reserve your space, please email Jonathan Thompson (thompsonjm1 [at] cardiff.ac.uk). Parking is available but if you wish to park, please supply your registration in advance.
Analysing Activity Levels in the UK High Street by using Footfall Counts
Venue: M/0.40, School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
Speaker: Christine Mumford, School of Computer Science & Informatics, Cardiff University.
Date: Tuesday, 01 May 2018 at 17:15
The next meeting of SWORDS will take place on Tuesday 1st May 2018 when Christine Mumford of Cardiff School of Computer Science and Informatics will present on Analysing Activity Levels in the UK High Street by Using Footfall Counts. Refreshments will be available in M/1.04 from 5.15pm with the seminar starting at 5.45pm in M/0.40. The meeting will be held at the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University.
Abstract
The UK high street needs to adapt to the new consumer reality, in which on-line shopping accounts for an ever-increasing proportion of the market. We can see change happening all around us, with leading chains going into administration, boarded up windows, and a plethora of charity shops replacing individual traders etc. It is not all doom and gloom, however. Coffee shops, specialty restaurants , and leisure facilities are offering alternatives to shopping in many locations but nevertheless, far too much retail space remains in most of our town centres.
In a change from my usual work on combinatorial optimization, heuristics and evolutionary algorithms, I am currently part of a team working on an Innovate UK project that aims to play a role in helping the high street to adapt and regenerate. Our partner organizations are stakeholders in the high street economy, and include 7 towns, 1 retail property plc. , and 4 trade associations. Springboard Ltd lead our project and provide us with footfall data, which we use as the main measure of activity in a town. Springboard have counters installed in most UK towns and cities, and 11 years of hourly data from several hundred counters is available.
25 priorities for local action have been recognized in a previous study, and these consist mainly of some very basic things such as coordinating opening hours, improving the appearance of the town, and of course generally offering the local catchment what they want. Measuring changes in footfall in response to interventions by high street stakeholders can tell us whether the interventions have been effective. The footfall activity information and much more besides will be provided to the stakeholders through a set of dashboards which are being developed by a private company called My Knowledge Map. My present role is to do the “backroom” analytics. The technical work so far has confirmed some interesting classifications of towns based on their footfall profiles, which I will talk about in my presentation, as well as time series analysis, and its many challenges when attempting to predict future footfall.
Right Care - the Right Way for the NHS
Venue: M/0.40, School of Maths, Cardiff University
Speaker: Esther Giles, Regional Finance Director, NHS England
Date: Thursday, 08 March 2018 at 17:15 - 19:00
The next SWORDS meeting will begin with refreshments in M/1.04 at 5.15pm with the seminar starting at 5.45pm in M/0.40. Please email thompsonjm1 [at] cardiff.ac.uk if you have any questions. This will be a joint meeting with WORDS.
Abstract
Esther will describe the general "RightCare" approach being taken in the NHS (about identifying variation) and contrast this with the internal market process which uses commissioner allocations and tariffs to distribute funding. Hence, she will draw out the conflict between the Chief Financial Officer and the OR Practitioner. Esther will then draw on two specific areas of work she has been and is involved in - particularly Secure Learning Disability Bed Capacity and adult Critical Care Capacity and Cost.
Biography: Esther has a MA in Economics from the University of Cambridge and a MSc in Operational Research for Healthcare Management from the Universities of Sheffield Hallam and Leeds. She is a chartered public finance (CPFA) accountant and is currently Director of Finance (Specialised Service) for the Southern Region of England
Fitting the Bartlett-Lewis Rainfall Model Using Approximate Bayesian Computation
Venue: School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
Speaker: Prof Owen Jones, Cardiff University
Date: Tuesday, 13 February 2018 at 17:45 - 19:00
The next SWORDS meeting of the 2017-2018 programme is scheduled for Tuesday the 13th of February 2018. The meeting will be held at the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University and will include the AGM. There will be drinks available from 5.15pm in room M/1.04 on the first floor in the School of Mathematics. The talk will commence at 5.45pm in room M/0.40 (ground floor.)
Abstract
The Bartlett-Lewis rainfall model is a well-known model based on a clustered point process. It is defined using primary and secondary processes. The primary process is known as the parent process or the storm arrival process. Starting at each point of the parent process there is an associated secondary process called a daughter process or a cell arrival process. Each cell then has an associated rainfall duration and intensity, and the total rainfall intensity at time t is the sum of the intensities from all active cells at that time. The standard Bartlett-Lewis model uses a Poisson process for the storm arrival process. The cell arrival processes are also Poisson, stopped after an exponential time (the storm duration). Cell durations and intensities are also given independent exponential distributions. Even in its simplest form, this model has an intractable likelihood and cannot be fitted using maximum likelihood. Instead we consider two likelihood free parameter estimation regimes: Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). GMM is currently the preferred method for fitting Bartlett-Lewis rainfall models. This frequentist method compares empirical and theoretical statistics using weighted least squares. ABC is a new approach for fitting Poisson cluster rainfall models, and instead of the theoretical statistics used by GMM it uses simulated data statistics. This allows us to use statistics for which we have no nice theoretical expressions. ABC-MCMC combines ABC and Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. We present a comparative study of ABC Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ABC-MCMC) and GMM, using simulated and real data sets. We show that ABC-MCMC outperforms GMM when applied to Bartlett-Lewis rainfall models. This opens a new avenue for fitting Poisson cluster models to real data without having to derive theoretical statistics, which, in some cases, are impossible to obtain.
Biography: I am an applied mathematician with a background in data analytics, optimisation and simulation. Many of my projects involve assembling data from divers sources, using it to build simulation models, then using those models to inform management decisions. Previous collaborators include the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (planning for the Post Entry Quarantine facility, a national infrastructure project); the Australian Office of Transport Security (improving security procedures in Australian airports); Rate Valuation Services (a financial services company); McLaren International (the racing team); Merlin Power Systems (a feasibility study for an emergency response scheme for power generators in the UK); and National Air Traffic Systems (responsible for air traffic control in the UK).
My work makes use of a wide range of computational, analytical and mathematical techniques. I have taught graduate courses in machine learning and data mining, and I am the principal author of a best-selling text book on programming and simulation using the language R. Much of my current research concerns complex spatio-temporal environmental data, in particular problems of water runoff in catchment areas.
The Mathematics of Networks and Maps, together with Pub Quiz and Pizza
Venue: Cardiff University School of Mathematics
Speaker: Dr Rhyd Lewis, Cardiff University
Date: Wednesday, 13 December 2017 at 17:30 - 21:00
The next SWORDS meeting of the 2017-2018 programme is scheduled for Wednesday the 13th of December 2017. The meeting will be held at the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University. There will be drinks available from 5.15pm in room M/1.04 on the first floor in the School of Mathematics. The talk will commence at 5.45pm in room E/0.15 (ground floor). This will be followed by a quiz and food (pizza) in room M/1.02.
There is a charge for the social of £5 for OR Society members and £10 for others (partners are welcome). We need to know in advance who is coming so please let me know asap if you wish to attend. Also let me know if you have any dietary requirements.
Please contact Jonathan Thompson, tel: 029-20875524. E-Mail: ThompsonJM1 [at] cardiff.ac.uk
Abstract
How do satnavs find the quickest route from one town to another? What’s the most efficient way to visit the best pubs in the UK? Is it true that all living things in the world are six or fewer degrees of separation away from each other? In this talk I will shows, pictorially, how the many problems in everyday life can be modelled as networks: from the colouring of maps to the way Facebook makes friend recommendations.
A Clustered Overflow Configuration of Inpatient Beds in Hospitals
Venue: School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
Speaker: Dr Navid Izady, City Business School, University of London
Date: Tuesday, 14 November 2017 at 17:45 - 19:00
The next SWORDS event will take place in Cardiff University School of Mathematics on the 14th of November 2017. The speaker is Dr Navid Izady of City Business School. Refreshments will be available from 5.15pm in room M/1.04 and the talk will commence at 5.45pm in E/0.15.
Abstract
The shortage of inpatient beds is a major cause of delays and cancellations in many hospitals. It may also lead to patients being admitted to inappropriate wards, resulting in lower quality of care, longer length of stay and higher rate of mortality. Due to financial, legislative, staffing or space constraints, adding new beds is not always feasible. Instead, new and creative solutions for more efficient use of existing resources must be sought.
We propose a new configuration of inpatient beds in hospitals which we refer to as the clustered overflow configuration. In this configuration patients who are denied admission to their primary wards as a result of beds being fully occupied are admitted to overflow wards, each designated to serve overflows from a certain subset of specialties. We propose a novel analytical methodology for optimal partitioning and bed allocation in the proposed configuration, and apply it on real data to generate insight and also to compare the new configuration with other configurations common in practice.
The numerical analysis of the results shows that the proposed configuration could substantially improve the number of patients admitted at the expense of marginal increase in nursing cost. The improvements reduce with traffic intensity and impact of focus but still substantial when both parameters are high. The proposed configuration provides the combined advantages of the dedicated configuration, where patients are only admitted to their primary wards, and the flexible configuration, where excess demand is absorbed in non-primary wards. On the other hand, it restricts the adverse impacts of sharing through optimal partitioning and bed allocation. As such it serves as a viable alternative to existing configurations in hospitals.
Postgraduate Research in Operational Research
Venue: E/0.15, School of Maths, Cardiff University
Speaker: A number of Postgraduate Students and Hope Meadows (ORS)
Date: Tuesday, 10 October 2017 TBC
The SWORDS program for 2017/2018 begins with the annual PhD student presentations on Tuesday 10th October, starting at 5.45pm. The event will be in room E/0.15 in the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University. Tea and coffee will be available in the café in the Maths department from 5.15pm
The meeting will be followed by a meal together at a local establishment. Please let me know if you intend to come, so we can order sufficient food. Also let me know of any dietary requirements.
As well as short presentations by PhD students from both Cardiff University and the University of South Wales, it will be a chance to meet the new MSc students who are starting their studies at Cardiff University and Hope Meadows of the Operational Research Society will update us with information about its current initiatives and Pro Bono work.
I look forward to hearing from you,
Dr Jonathan Thompson, Senior Lecturer and Director of Learning and Teachingol of Maths, Cardiff University
02920 875 524 / thompsonjm1 [at] cf.ac.uk
Admiral Cardiff site visit
Venue: Ty Admiral, David Street, Cardiff, CF10 2EH
Date: Wednesday, 24 May 2017 at 13:30 - 24 April 2017
There is a visit to Admiral on Wednesday 24th of May between 1:30 and 3:30pm. The details are below. This is a great opportunity to see some exciting and innovative uses of Predictive Modelling in the Insurance Industry. Admiral uses modelling in many different departments including Telematics, Underwriting, Marketing and Claims. This visit will give an overview to the business, and a few topical applications of Predictive Modelling. To reserve your place please contact Jonathan Thompson on thompsonjm1 [at] cardiff.ac.uk
The address is Ty Admiral, David Street, Cardiff, CF10 2EH. There is car parking in the nearby NCP/St Davids 2. Cardiff Queen St/Cardiff Central train stations are both less than a 10 minute walk from Ty Admiral.
Schedule
The visit will include the following:
- Welcome and introduction by Rhodri Charles – Head of Pricing and Analytics at Admiral
- Business Analytics at Admiral – the department, stakeholders, techniques and challenges.
- Telematics at Admiral - a quick look into Admiral’s motor telematics product, the data we receive and the resulting predictive models for driver behaviour and risk prediction.
- Product Benefits – Assessing the wants and needs of our customers and whether they make business sense.
Towards solving two unsolved problems in logistics
Venue: Cardiff School of Mathematics
Speaker: Patrick Beullens, Southampton University
Date: Tuesday, 07 March 2017 at 18:00 - 19:00
The next SWORDS meeting of the 2016-2017 programme is scheduled for Tuesday the 7th of March 2017. The meeting will be held at the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University and will include the AGM. There will be cheese and wine available from 5.15pm in room M/1.04 on the first floor in the School of Mathematics. The talk will commence at 6.00pm in room E/0.15 (ground floor). Please note that times and rooms are different to normal.
Abstract
This talk will focus on two seemingly unrelated problems in the area of logistics:
(a) what is the optimal economic order quantity to maximise a firm's profits after tax?
(b) what is the optimal speed of a time chartered ship?
We demonstrate that both problems can be viewed as comparing an infinite set of mutually exclusive choices of investments of different duration. Based on first principles of corporate finance theory, an optimal decision is determined from maximising the annuity stream of the cash-flow functions associated with these activities over the duration of the investment.
One benefit of this approach over traditional average profit models is that it can more accurately account for the influence of different contracts that the firm adopts with the outside world. We illustrate this point by examining how tax legislation affects the profitability of a UK firm that has to take economic order quantity decisions(1). We consider the influence of both corporate tax and value added tax on the firm's inventory problem.
A second benefit of adopting this approach is that it can help us to understand the importance of accounting for the opportunity cost of future investment opportunities after the current investment project is finished. We illustrate by looking into the problem of optimising the speed of a time chartered ship across a pre-determined route(2).
(1) The first problem is based on joint work with PhD student Hua Jin who holds an MSc in Finance and Accounting.
(2) The second is based on joint work with PhD student Fangsheng Ge who holds an MSc in Operational Research and Finance, and Dominic Hudson, Shell Professor at the University of Southampton.
Joint SWORDS/WORDS Event - Diversity and identity: challenges and opportunities for UK OR
Venue: Cardiff School of Mathematics
Speaker: Ruth Kaufman, President of the OR Society
Date: Tuesday, 07 February 2017 at 17:15 - 19:00
Meeting Details
The next SWORDS meeting of the 2016-2017 programme is scheduled for Tuesday the 7th of February 2017. The meeting will be held at the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University and is a joint meeting with WORDS. There will be cheese and wine available from 5.15pm in room M/1.04 on the first floor in the School of Mathematics. The talk will commence at 6.00pm in room E/0.15 (ground floor). Please note that times and rooms are different to normal.
Abstract
People engaged in an activity like OR, can be described on countless dimensions. For example, personal characteristics (the 'protected characteristics' of ethnicity, gender etc. that are part of formal diversity initiatives, but also values, preferences, personality), daily work activities, customer, owner, career path, whether they have ever heard of OR. Diversity can be a strength; but so can uniform identity. This talk reviews some significant dimensions of diversity and identity in UK OR, to consider what we might need to do to overcome the challenges of too much or too little diversity, and where we can exploit the enormous potential benefits of the glorious variety of ways of 'being an OR person'.
Analytics at McLaren: Driving Performance through Innovation
Venue: School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
Speaker: Dr Angelico Fetta
Date: Wednesday, 07 December 2016 at 17:45
The next SWORDS meeting of the 2016-2017 programme is scheduled for Wednesday the 7th of December 2016. The meeting will be held at the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University. There will be drinks available from 5.15pm in room M/1.04 on the first floor in the School of Mathematics. The talk will commence at 5.45pm in room M/0.40 (ground floor). This will be followed by a quiz and food in room M/1.02.
There is a charge for the social of £5 for OR Society members and £10 for others (partners are welcome). We need to know in advance who is coming so please let me know asap if you wish to attend. Also let me know if you would like the vegetarian option.
Please contact Jonathan Thompson, tel: 029-20875524. E-Mail: ThompsonJM1 [at] cardiff.ac.uk
McLaren works with pioneers in industry, exploiting techniques and methodologies developed in Formula 1 to create novel solutions to complex real-world problems. Analytics is one of the most significant areas of growth at McLaren, with an expanding pipeline of projects from sectors such as healthcare, finance, energy and transport. This presentation offers an insight into some of the methods employed by the Analytics team, discussing a selection of the decision-support and real-time predictive modelling tools developed.
Lies, Damned Lies and Credit Derivatives
Venue: Cardiff University School of Mathematics
Speaker: Meirion Morgan
Date: Tuesday, 08 November 2016 at 17:45 - 19:00
The next SWORDS meeting will take place on the 8th November in room M/0.40 of the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University. Tea and coffee will be available in the Internet Cafe in the Mathemartics building from 5.15.
Abstract
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007 onwards needs no introduction – its effects were felt throughout the world. The subsequent media attention vilified bankers, yet the financial system as a whole can be shown to be at fault. In this talk, the speaker will look at credit derivatives – the financial products believed to have been instrumental in exacerbating the crisis – and discuss poor understanding of risk underpinning them, its mispricing, and the role played by mathematics in it all.
Biography: Dr. Meirion Morgan is a maths graduate of Cardiff (B.Sc., 1991) and Oxford (D.Phil, 1999) and worked for over a decade in the City as a Quantitative Analyst at a number of banks including UBS, Rabobank, RBS and Lloyds. He also co-founded a specialist financial services company shortly before the Global Financial Crisis.
PhD Talks and Social
Venue: School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
Speaker: PhD Students
Date: Monday, 03 October 2016 at 17:45
The SWORDS program for 2016/2017 begins with the annual PhD student presentations on Monday 3rd October, starting at 5.45pm. The event will be in room E/0.15 in the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University. Tea and coffee will be available in the café in the Maths department from 5.15pm
The meeting will be followed by a meal together at a local establishment. Please let me know if you intend to come, so we can order sufficient food. Also let me know of any dietary requirements.
As well as short presentations by PhD students from both Cardiff University and the University of South Wales, it will be a chance to meet the new MSc students who are starting their studies at Cardiff University and Louise Allison of the Operational Research Society will update us with information about its current initiatives.
I look forward to hearing from you,
Dr Jonathan Thompson, Senior Lecturer and Director of Learning and Teaching, School of Maths, Cardiff University
02920 875 524 / thompsonjm1 [at] cf.ac.uk
Visit to Dwr Cymru Welsh Water
Date: Wednesday, 04 May 2016 at 14:00 - 16:00
There is a visit to Dwr Cymru Welsh Water on Wednesday 4th of May between 2 and 4pm. The details are below. This is a great opportunity to see some exciting and innovative uses of Operational Research at first hand. Welsh Water has invested over £9 million in innovation projects over the last 12 months which has transformed the way they operate. The tour will give the opportunity to see cutting edge visualisation tools as well as many other areas of their business.
Please let me know if you plan to attend (email thompsonjm1 [at] cardiff.ac.uk) – Welsh Water require numbers in advance. Please also contact me if you would like a lift and we will see if we can arrange transport.
Directions
The address is Dwr Cymru Welsh Water, Ty Awen, Spooner Close, Coedkernew, Newport, NP10 8FZ. There is car parking onsite with a few visitor spaces at the front and an overflow carpark just behind the building.
Schedule
The visit will include the following:
- Igloo 360 demonstration - Igloo 360 is a circular pod which projects a 360 degree image onto the walls. It has the capability of google street map and intricate details of sites (see http://goo.gl/ehsN6O)
- Modelling bacti failures at reservoirs - Bacti failures can occur in the water at reservoirs and Welsh Water model the probability of a sample failing at each reservoir
- Treatment Performance Forecast (TPF) - Looking at determinants at treatment works to establish causing factors and provide a score to each work
- Smart Hub overview - The Smart Hub is an area of the company that looks at predicting failures/problems before they happen to reduce disruption to the customer
- Smart scheduling - Optimising tanker deliveries around sites to minimise the number of tankers, fuel emissions and cost of hiring contractors
- Rant and Rave - If a customer contacts us we invite them to provide us with feedback of our customer service via our Rant and Rave system. From this we can establish how to improve via sentiment analysis
Structural Modelling the Mis-selling of Retail Banking Products
Venue: School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
Speaker: Dr Richard Wood, Lloyds Banking Group
Date: Wednesday, 09 March 2016 at 17:45 - 19:00
This SWORDS seminar will be given on the 9th of March by Dr Richard Wood of Lloyds Banking Group on Structural Mis-selling of Retail Banking Products. Drinks will be available from the Internet cafe in the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University from 5.30pm and the seminar will begin at 5.45pm.
Abstract
Alongside market and credit risk, operational risk represents a significant exposure for financial firms, against which large amounts of capital are held. Operational risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed processes, people and systems or from external events. This includes scenarios such as rogue trading, sanctions breach, mis-selling, cyber fraud, and terrorist attack. The standard method to assess capital requirement for each such scenario is a well-known actuarial technique - frequency/severity modelling. Here the numbers of losses per year are probabilistically combined with the loss amount given event occurrence to yield a distribution of annual loss, from which the 99.9% quantile provides the capital requirement as per the Basel II/III regulation. Rather than calibrate the frequency and severity distributions through the typical means of using loss data or expert opinion, which is not necessarily risk sensitive and limits the extent of facilitating risk management consideration, this study develops a structural approach in which these distributions are determined using bespoke models built on the underlying risk drivers. As an example, product mis-selling in Retail banking is considered. For this scenario, the frequency distribution is constructed using a Bayesian belief network and the severity distribution using system dynamics with elements of queuing theory and multi-objective optimisation. This talk describes the approach taken to this end, and illustrates how the model can be used to estimate capital for a particular crystallisation of the scenario involving packaged bank accounts.
An OR State of Mind - The Benefits of an OR Approach to Continuous Improvement Programmes.
Venue: School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
Speaker: Jon Richards, Nicola Drake (Quintec) and Felicity McLeister (OR Society)
Date: Wednesday, 24 February 2016 at 17:30 - 19:00
The next SWORDS seminar is scheduled for the 24th of February in the School of Mathematics, Cardiff University. Drinks will be available in the Internet Cafe from 5.30pm with the seminar commencing at 5.45pm.
Abstract
Pro Bono OR is a scheme operated by The OR Society which places skilled analysts in short terms projects with third sector organisations across the UK. A team from Thales Cyber and Consulting Services conducted the following Pro Bono OR project with Diabetes UK:
An OR State of Mind - The Benefits of an OR Approach to Continuous Improvement Programmes.
In any working environment, especially as an organisation expands it is easy to 'stick with what works' and repeat successful processes. These processes are often duplicated with minor tweaks and become part of 'business as usual'.
When the organisation is challenged to conduct improvements it can be very difficult to analyse these processes to identify what can be improved and where changes would provide benefits.
Based on the fundamentals of Business Change and Process Management this Pro Bono OR project demonstrates the benefits of an OR approach to identifying challenges and deriving improvements to business processes. This presentation discusses the analysis of business processes and the utilisation of all available information and people to derive observations and recommendations in direct support of the continuous improvement programme.
The presentation will conclude with the Pro Bono OR Project Manager, Felicity McLeister giving an overview of the scheme, some current volunteer roles and details of how you can get involved.
Maintaining Blood Stocks in Wales - a simple case of Demand & Supply?
Venue: Room M/0.40, School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
Speaker: Cath O’Brien (Director, WBS) and Stuart Morris (Head of Business Systems, WBS)
Date: Wednesday, 10 February 2016 at 17:30 - 19:00
The Welsh Blood Service [WBS] collects voluntary, non-remunerated blood donations from over 100,000 of the general public. These donations are processed and tested before distribution to hospitals where they support patient care. This currently covers South, West and part of Mid Wales; however in May 2016 North Wales will transfer from the English service to WBS with a 25% increase in production and creating an all Wales service.
This highly regulated supply chain operation has to maintain stock levels for this short-life product (5-7 days for platelets and 35 days for red blood cells) against variable and difficult to predict supply and demand across a range of blood groups.
Donors choose to donate at their convenience and are only able to donate at a set frequency of 16 weeks.
Hospital needs for blood vary according to total supply and blood group requirement resulting in a continual challenge to manage supply and ensure a minimal waste through expiry of the generous gift that donors give.
Currently only 1 in 30 people who are eligible to donate blood do so, whereas 1 in 3 people may need blood at some time in their life. As lifestyles and population demographics change, donor numbers are diminishing and recruitment techniques and donation process needs to meet the needs of the new donors we need to recruit.
The WBS blood collection model uses 5 teams of staff based on a system introduced in 2012 and now being reviewed. This utilises mobile blood vehicles, church halls, businesses and other community venues. The bleed model accommodates a mixture of appointments and walk in slots on an appointment grid and Donors follow a process of booking, screening, donation and rest through the clinic. Variable attendance and donor throughput time in the clinic impact on flow, waiting times and clinic capacity. The range of permutations of alignment of staff to clinic capacity, appropriate skill-mix, the clinic visit cycle and travel time to clinic from the WBS base all need to be factored into the planning.
Following donation, the blood has to be tested and processed according to tightly defined protocols before distributing to hospitals across Wales.
Swansea Bay Lagoon Construction Logistics
Venue: Swansea Civic Centre (County Hall), Committee Room 2, SA1 3SN
Speaker: Iona Jenkins, Development Director for Wales
Date: Thursday, 21 January 2016 at 18:00 - 20:00
The Swansea Bay development has the potential for a significant impact, both for the local region and the Welsh economy more generally. However, there are many logistical challenges in completing this development, and these will be explored in this presentation.