On the Nature of Rational Commitment in Robustness Analysis

Abstract

The concept of "robustness" examined in this paper is the one outlined, explored and developed by Rosenhead over 30 years. The general notion is that a robust decision is a decision that allows for flexibility and provides guidance for action. Flexibility so as to allow amendments that can take account of unforeseen changes in the future, and guidance for action by matching initial commitments with a range of believable future scenarios. This paper looks at the nature of such commitments if they are to be considered in some sense reasoned actions. Reasoned committed actions are contrasted with decisions that fulfill the axioms of rationality that underpin a large part of formalised decision theory. The paper outlines one approach to reasoned decision theory that draws upon analytical philosophy and incorporates a much broader sense of what constitutes rational action over time.