Applications in Strategic Issues Stream

Panel session:

Can scenarios be useful in, or in predicting, events such as COVID-19?

For many years, scenarios have been considered useful when managing uncertainty, a reputation established by Shell successfully predicting the Oil Crisis. Today scenarios are a thriving field, with many scholars offering different perspectives on scenario-development methods. COVID-19 is a historical event in the modern era similar to the Oil Crisis. Can scenarios, as a field, benefit from this situation as before?

The expert panel will address two questions before opening the discussion to participants. 

Question 1: What is the role of scenarios developed in events like COVID-19?

Question 2: Can scenarios predict events like COVID-19? 

Panellists

The panel includes three recognised scholars with different perspectives about scenarios:

George Wright, 
Strathclyde Business School

George Wright is the Editor of the journal Futures and Foresight Science.

James Derbyshire, 
Middlesex University Business School

James Derbyshire proposed an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation.

John Morecroft, 
London Business School

John Morecroft develops scenarios using System Dynamics methodology based on representing feedback structures to simulate the long-term dynamics of systems.