Simulation - past meetings archive

Winter Simulation Conference 2018

Speaker: Keynote: Dr. Jean Baderschneider
Date: Sunday, 09 December 2018 at 09:00 - 12 December 2018

Simulation for a Noble Cause

The Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) is the premier international forum for disseminating recent advances in the field of system simulation. In addition to a technical program of unsurpassed scope and quality, WSC provides the central meeting place for simulation practitioners, researchers, and vendors working in all disciplines in industry, service, government, military and academic sectors.

Simulation has been found useful for a range of scientific, engineering and business applications as evident by the papers presented at Winter Simulation Conferences over the past 50 years. Simulation has been employed to help noble causes too over the recent past but such efforts have received limited attention. The 2018 conference seeks to highlight applications of simulation for noble causes in addition to continuing to report leading developments and applications in other fields. The track sessions will feature uses of simulation in efforts analyzing and addressing issues facing humanity including, but not limited to, reducing poverty and world hunger, social causes, social problems, improving natural environment, and disaster response.

Learn about simulation applications for analyzing social issues such as human trafficking in the keynote address by Dr. Jean Baderschneider, CEO of the Global Fund to End Slavery.

KEYNOTE SPEAKER

Dr. Jean Baderschneider , CEO and Founding Board Member Global Fund to End Modern Slavery

Title: The potential of simulation for disrupting modern slavery systems

According to recent global estimates, over 25 million people are in conditions of modern slavery around the world. Modern slavery, an umbrella term which includes forced labor and forced sexual exploitation, is an economic crime of opportunity that occurs in every country in the world, generating an estimated $150 Billion USD in illegal profits to traffickers. It is a massive system of exploitation driven by both supply of vulnerable populations and demand for cheap products and services.

The Global Fund to End Modern Slavery (GFEMS) is a bold public-private partnership with a mission to make modern slavery economically unprofitable by catalyzing and coordinating a global, coherent strategy. Dr. Baderschneider will discuss how developing this coherent strategy will require innovative approaches to collecting data and to evaluating and disrupting systems driving modern slavery. She will highlight the potential of simulation to be a game-changer in this effort.

Two excellent speakers will present during the conference lunches, Dr. Peter Frazier, Associate Professor at Cornell University and Staff Data Scientist and Data Science Manager at Uber, and Dr. Russell Cheng, Emeritus Professor at the University of Southampton.

Transdisciplinary Modelling and Simulation Workshop

Venue: University of Exeter Business School
Speaker: Keynote speakers : Prof Paul Fishwick and Prof Andreas Tolk,
Date: Tuesday, 17 July 2018 at 09:00 - 17:00

You are invited to this one-day workshop on transdisciplinary modelling and simulation (M&S), being co-organised by the University of Exeter Business School, the Centre for Simulation, Analytics & Modelling and The OR Society's Simulation SIG.

Transdisciplinary M&S brings together approaches and methodologies from distinct disciplines, with the objective of developing hybrid system models that transcend discipline-specific boundaries, thereby contribution to the development of the field of M&S.

The workshop has two main goals are:

· to bring together a wide variety of theorists and practitioners interested in modeling so that all may learn a diversity of approaches

· to explore cross-connections between the approaches in the hope of forging new clusters.

Keynote Speakers

The workshop will feature two keynote addresses by:

Prof Paul Fishwick, Distinguished University Chair of Arts, Technology and Emerging Communication, Professor of Computer Science, UT Dallas, USA, and The Leverhulme Trust Visiting Professor with University of Exeter Business School.
Prof Andreas Tolk, The MITRE Corporation and Adjunct Professor at Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia.

We look forward to seeing you on the day!

Research Colloquium in Application of Analytics, modelling and simulation in complex systems

Venue: Business Insight Lab, Rik Medik Building, Surrey Business School, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH
Speaker: Prof Lampros Stergioulas, Prof Paul Fishwick, Prof Navonil Mustafee and Prof Nigel Gilbert

Date: Wednesday, 04 July 2018 at 12:00 - 16:00

Research Colloquium in Application of Analytics, modelling and simulation in complex systems

Half-Day Workshop organised by the UK OR Society and Surrey Business School, Wednesday 4^th July 2018 12:00-16:00pm in the Business Insight Lab

INVITATION TO OUR RESEARCH COLLOQUIUM SPECIAL EVENT

UK Operational Research Society Simulation SIG Roadtrip with Paul Fishwick

The Surrey Business School is pleased to invite you to its “Research Colloquium in Application of Analytics, modelling and simulation in complex systems” taking place on Wednesday 4^th July 2018 12:00-16:00pm in Room 34MS01 (Business insights Lab), Rik Medik Building, University of Surrey, with our Keynote speakers:

Prof Paul Fishwick, Distinguished University Chair of Arts, Technology and Emerging Communication, and Professor of Computer Science, UT Dallas, USA

Professor Nigel Gilbert, CBE, ScD, FREng, FAcSS, Professor of Sociology, University of Surrey, UK.

This colloquium series at the University of Surrey aims to highlight and discuss the challenges of business analytics in the real world, create awareness on relevant cutting-edge technologies, tools, methods and processes in business analytics and data science, thus offering participants an exposure to various research trends in the industry and enabling them to engage with real-world business problems.

Professor Paul Fishwick

Distinguished University Chair of Arts, Technology and Emerging Communication, and Professor of Computer Science

Recipient of Leverhulme Trust Visiting Professorship award, supporting his Research Visit to UK including Surrey Business School.

BIOGRAPHY

Paul Fishwick is Distinguished University Chair of Arts and Technology (ATEC), and Professor of Computer Science. He has six years of industry experience as a systems analyst working at Newport News Shipbuilding and at NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. He was on the faculty at the University of Florida from 1986 to 2012, and was Director of the Digital Arts and Sciences Programs. His PhD was in Computer and Information Science from the University of Pennsylvania. Fishwick is active in modelling and simulation, as well as in the bridge areas spanning art, science, and engineering. He pioneered the area of aesthetic computing, resulting in an MIT Press edited volume in 2006. He is a Fellow of the Society for Computer Simulation, served as General Chair of the Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), was a WSC Titan Speaker in 2009, and has delivered over 24 keynote addresses at international conferences. He was Chair of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) Special Interest Group in Simulation (SIGSIM) for four years from 2012 to 2016. Fishwick has over 230 technical publications and has served on all major archival journal editorial boards related to simulation, including ACM Transactions on Modeling and Simulation (TOMACS) where he was a founding area editor of modelling methodology in 1990. He is CEO of Metaphorz, LLC which assists the State of Florida in its catastrophe modelling software engineering auditing process for risk-based simulation for hurricanes and floods.

KEYNOTE: The Art and Science of Modeling and Simulation

One of the characteristics of being human is to model. In our history, we began with representations of animals made from natural materials, and painted on cave walls. We also made regular marks on animal bones. While the modern accounting of these products is art (animal representations) and mathematics (bone marks), a more comprehensive understanding points to modelling in both cases. We saw or imagined things, and then we made models of our experience. This talk will be a non-technical, cross-disciplinary, introduction to modelling. Professor Paul Fishwick will discuss (1) the history of modelling, (2) a way of thinking about modelling using three broad categories, (3) the notion that computer and information science is a form of modelling, and (4) approaches to modelling across disciplines – from art and humanities to business, science, and engineering.

Programme:

12:00-13:00 Lunch and Registration

13:00-13:15 Welcome by Prof Ansgar Richter, Dean of Surrey Business School

13:15-13:45 Surrey Analytics and Industry-led Research by Prof Lampros Stergioulas (University of Surrey, UK)

13:45-14:15 A Business Analytics Framework for Capturing and Analysing Real-time Data on A&E Waiting Time using the NHSquicker Platform by Prof Navonil Mustafee (University of Exeter, UK)

14:15-14:30 Coffee Break

14:30-14:45 KEYNOTE: The Art and Science of Modelling and Simulation by Prof Paul Fishwick (University of Texas at Dallas, USA)

14:45-15:15 KEYNOTE: Simulating Societies: A Computational Approach to Social Science, by Prof Nigel Gilbert CBE, ScD, FREng, FAcSS (University of Surrey, UK)

15:15-15:45 Panel Discussion on the Application of Analytics, modelling and simulation in complex systems with Prof Paul Fishwick, Prof Navonil Mustafee, Prof Nigel Gilbert and Prof Lampros Stergioulas, Chaired by Dr Masoud Fakhimi

15:45-16:00 Closing comments

This Research Colloquium is for Academics, Researchers, PhD students, Industry leaders and experts, practitioners or anyone else interested in Simulation and Business Analytics. This is an open invitation and a free event. Lunch, tea and Coffee will be provided.

The Art and Science of Modelling

Venue: University of Southampton, Building 2A, Room 2077
Speaker: Paul Fishwick, Nav Mustafee and John Powell
Date: Monday, 18 June 2018 at 16:00 - 18:30

Joint meeting of the Southern OR Group, the OR Society Simulation SIG and CORMSIS

(Southampton Centre for OR, Management Science and Information Systems)

Monday 18 June 2018, 16:00 – 18:30

University of Southampton, Building 2A, Room 2077

1. The Art and Science of Modelling

Paul Fishwick, UT Dallas

One of the characteristics of being human is to model. In our history, we began with representations of animals made from natural materials, and painted on cave walls. We also made regular marks on animal bones. While the modern accounting of these products is art (animal representations) and mathematics (bone marks), a more comprehensive understanding points to modelling in both cases. We saw or imagined things, and then we made models of our experience. This talk will be a non-technical, cross-disciplinary, introduction to modelling. I will discuss (1) the history of modelling, (2) a way of thinking about modelling using three broad categories, (3) the notion that computer and information science is a form of modelling, and (4) approaches to modelling across disciplines – from art and humanities to business, science, and engineering.

Paul Fishwick is Distinguished University Chair of Arts and Technology (ATEC), and Professor of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Dallas. He has six years of industry experience as a systems analyst working at Newport News Shipbuilding and at NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. He was on the faculty at the University of Florida from 1986 to 2012, and was Director of the Digital Arts and Sciences Programs. His PhD was in Computer and Information Science from the University of Pennsylvania. Fishwick is active in modelling and simulation, as well as in the bridge areas spanning art, science, and engineering. He pioneered the area of aesthetic computing, resulting in an MIT Press edited volume in 2006. He is a Fellow of the Society for Computer Simulation, served as General Chair of the Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), was a WSC Titan Speaker in 2009, and has delivered over 24 keynote addresses at international conferences. Fishwick has over 230 technical publications and has served on all major archival journal editorial boards related to simulation, including ACM Transactions on Modeling and Simulation (TOMACS) where he was a founding area editor of modelling methodology in 1990. He is CEO of Metaphorz, LLC which assists the State of Florida in its catastrophe modelling software engineering auditing process for risk-based simulation for hurricanes and floods.

This talk is part of the “Simulation SIG Paul Fishwick roadshow” co-sponsored by the UK OR Society and the Leverhulme Trust.

2. Investigating the use of real-time data in nudging patients' emergency department attendance behaviour using the NHSquicker Platform

Navonil Mustafee and John Powell, University of Exeter

Decision-making in healthcare is a complex process involving multiple stakeholders. One such stakeholder category is the intended users of the system itself – the patients. We present a study in which users use real-time hospital operations data to make attendance choices. The aim of this research is to provide information transparency on Emergency Department /Minor Injury Unit (ED/MIU) waiting times which would allow recipients, including, significantly, patients who are in need of urgent medical attention, to make informed decisions as to the facility that could best serve their needs. This work is expected to contribute towards reducing pressure in ED by redistributing demand for minor ailments among the MIUs, since the MIUs have facilities for the treatment of minor injuries and the ED exists mainly for emergency and life-threating conditions.

The initial work was carried out with the Torbay & South Devon NHS Foundation Trust (TSDFT) and its network of Minor Injury Units (MIUs) and one Emergency Department (ED). It has since expanded to include several trusts in South West England, the creation of the Health & Care IMPACT Network, and the development of the NHSquicker platform.

Navonil Mustafee is Associate Professor of Operations Management & Analytics and Deputy Director of the Centre for Simulation, Analytics and Modelling (CSAM) at University of Exeter Business School. He is the founding co-chair of the Health and Care IMPACT Network and honorary researcher with Torbay and South Devon and RD&E Foundation Trusts. His interests are in hybrid systems modelling, hybrid simulation, healthcare analytics and bibliometric analysis. He is the current Chair of the OR Society’s Simulation SIG.

John Powell is Professor of Strategy at Exeter University Business School. Prior to that he led the University of Stellenbosch Business School in Cape Town. His main research interests are in formal and semiformal methods applied to strategic problems and issues. These include representations of knowledge flow, scenario modelling, and, latterly, systems modelling of health and critical systems. He holds a PhD from Carnfield University and is a winner of HM the Queen’s Medal for Academic Excellence, and the President's Medal from the OR Society.

The Art and Science of Modelling

Venue: WBB 207, Brunel University, London, Uxbridge, Middx, UB8 3PH
Speaker: Professor Paul Fishwick
Date: Friday, 08 June 2018 at 13:00 - 16:00

UK Operational Research Society Simulation SIG Roadtrip with Paul Fishwick

Hosted by the Modelling & Simulation Group, Brunel University London

The Art and Science of Modelling

One of the characteristics of being human is to model. In our history, we began with representations of animals made from natural materials, and painted on cave walls. We also made regular marks on animal bones. While the modern accounting of these products is art (animal representations) and mathematics (bone marks), a more comprehensive understanding points to modelling in both cases. We saw or imagined things, and then we made models of our experience. This talk will be a non-technical, cross-disciplinary, introduction to modelling. I will discuss (1) the history of modelling, (2) a way of thinking about modelling using three broad categories, (3) the notion that computer and information science is a form of modelling, and (4) approaches to modelling across disciplines – from art and humanities to business, science, and engineering.

Professor Paul Fishwick

Distinguished University Chair of Arts, Technology and Emerging Communication, and Professor of Computer Science

BIOGRAPHY

Paul Fishwick is Distinguished University Chair of Arts and Technology (ATEC), and Professor of Computer Science. He has six years of industry experience as a systems analyst working at Newport News Shipbuilding and at NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. He was on the faculty at the University of Florida from 1986 to 2012, and was Director of the Digital Arts and Sciences Programs. His PhD was in Computer and Information Science from the University of Pennsylvania. Fishwick is active in modelling and simulation, as well as in the bridge areas spanning art, science, and engineering. He pioneered the area of aesthetic computing, resulting in an MIT Press edited volume in 2006. He is a Fellow of the Society for Computer Simulation, served as General Chair of the Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), was a WSC Titan Speaker in 2009, and has delivered over 24 keynote addresses at international conferences. He was Chair of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) Special Interest Group in Simulation (SIGSIM) four years from 2012 to 2016. Fishwick has over 230 technical publications and has served on all major archival journal editorial boards related to simulation, including ACM Transactions on Modeling and Simulation (TOMACS) where he was a founding area editor of modelling methodology in 1990. He is CEO of Metaphorz, LLC which assists the State of Florida in its catastrophe modelling software engineering auditing process for risk-based simulation for hurricanes and floods.

If you would like to come please register by emailing Simon Taylor ([email protected]) before 1st June 2018

Directions and parking arrangements: https://www.brunel.ac.uk/about/finding-us (Note that we are now in the Wilfred Brown Building!)

Please note that Lunch will not be supplied for this event – Brunel has several options for dining – see the campus map.

13:00-16:00 Friday June 8th

WBB 207

Brunel University London

Uxbridge

Middx UB8 3PH

Simulation Modelling in the Era of Big Data

Venue: Alliance Manchester Business School Dover Street Building, Room 1.037 (1st floor), M13 9GB

Speaker: Paul Fishwick, Andi Smart, Nathan Proudlove, Navonil Mustafee and Stephan Onggo

Date: Wednesday, 30 May 2018 at 12:00 - 26 April 2018 - 16:30

A combined event organized by SIG Simulation, Decision and Cognitive Sciences Research Centre (DCSRC), and North West Regional SIG. Prof Paul Fishwick’s visit to the UK is funded by the Leverhulme Trust Visiting Professorship award with University of Exeter Business School.

Programme:

12:00-13:00: Lunch and registration

13:00-14:00: Paul Fishwick (UT Dallas) - The Art and Science of Modelling

14:00-14:30: Andi Smart (Exeter) – Enhancing Visitor Experience at Cultural Heritage Sites: Hybrid Systems Approach Incorporating Gaze-time Data with Computer Simulation

14:30-15:00: Nathan Proudlove (Manchester) - Modelling Patient Flows: Developing BPMN for Fit-for-purpose Operational Flow Mapping

15:00-15:30: Break

15:00-16:00: Enabling Real-time Simulation using Symbiotic Simulation, NHSquicker and Demand Forecasting (Navonil Mustafee (Exeter), Alisson Harper (Exeter) and Stephan Onggo (Trinity College Dublin)

16:00-16:30: Closing (informal discussion + tea/coffee + we may go to a pub afterward)

Programme Detail

The Art and Science of Modelling (Paul Fishwick, UT Dallas)

One of the characteristics of being human is to model. In our history, we began with representations of animals made from natural materials, and painted on cave walls. We also made regular marks on animal bones. While the modern accounting of these products is art (animal representations) and mathematics (bone marks), a more comprehensive understanding points to modelling in both cases. We saw or imagined things, and then we made models of our experience. This talk will be a non-technical, cross-disciplinary, introduction to modelling. I will discuss (1) the history of modelling, (2) a way of thinking about modelling using three broad categories, (3) the notion that computer and information science is a form of modelling, and (4) approaches to modelling across disciplines – from art and humanities to business, science, and engineering.

BIOGRAPHY: Paul Fishwick is Distinguished University Chair of Arts and Technology (ATEC), and Professor of Computer Science. He has six years of industry experience as a systems analyst working at Newport News Shipbuilding and at NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. He was on the faculty at the University of Florida from 1986 to 2012, and was Director of the Digital Arts and Sciences Programs. His PhD was in Computer and Information Science from the University of Pennsylvania. Fishwick is active in modelling and simulation, as well as in the bridge areas spanning art, science, and engineering. He pioneered the area of aesthetic computing, resulting in an MIT Press edited volume in 2006. He is a Fellow of the Society for Computer Simulation, served as General Chair of the Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), was a WSC Titan Speaker in 2009, and has delivered over 24 keynote addresses at international conferences. He was Chair of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) Special Interest Group in Simulation (SIGSIM) four years from 2012 to 2016. Fishwick has over 230 technical publications and has served on all major archival journal editorial boards related to simulation, including ACM Transactions on Modeling and Simulation (TOMACS) where he was a founding area editor of modelling methodology in 1990. He is CEO of Metaphorz, LLC which assists the State of Florida in its catastrophe modelling software engineering auditing process for risk-based simulation for hurricanes and floods.

Enhancing Visitor Experience at Cultural Heritage Sites: Hybrid Systems Approach Incorporating Gaze-time Data with Computer Simulation (Andi Smart, Exeter)

The VISTA AR project (Interreg FCE programme) focuses on the use of digital technologies to enhance the visitor experience and to develop innovative business models for cultural heritage sites. This talk focuses on the development of a hybrid systems model using visitor intelligence (VI), gaze-time and computer simulation. VI tools are focused on understanding the visitor journey and experience. The visitor journey analysis includes assessing dwell-time and gaze-time.

A pilot study was undertaken in Exeter cathedral to capture the customer journey and included the use of eye-tracking technology to capture gaze-time of particular artefacts. The analysis of gaze duration was undertaken using heat-maps, which were indicative of the visitors' attention and interest. A particular challenge is communicating these results to management. A simulation model was developed to allow the presentation of the visitor journey. This allows management to observe the pattern of visitor journeys and the interest in different artefacts. The simulation model conforms to a ‘hybrid’ approach in that the data exported from the vision analysis software (Tobii Pro) directly informs duration activity (dwell-time and gaze-time). The sequence within the model is also derived from the vision data. A Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model, superimposed on a map of the building, was constructed using this data.

Modelling patient flows: Developing BPMN for fit-for-purpose operational flow mapping (Nathan Proudlove, Manchester)

Process mapping is a central tool in the understanding, improvement and design of processes. Different approaches have developed within different disciplines, in particular Value Stream Mapping in operations management, Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) in enterprise information systems, and activity cycle/process flow diagrams for discrete-event simulation (DES) in operational research. Mapping patient pathways is a key tool in healthcare quality improvement, sometimes as a precursor to DES modelling. However, there is little formal guidance or widely-used approach. This work arises from projects involving process mapping in several hospitals. We find that BPMN tools are potentially very useful and provide nascent automated links to DES modelling for process improvement, but the treatment of important issues in flow (in particular queues/buffers/waste) is naïve and restrictive. We propose that some extensions to the BPMN object set to bring in operations management thinking and accommodate flow structures as found in, for example, hospitals, would produce a powerful, fit-for-purpose process mapping toolkit.

Enabling Real-time Simulation using Symbiotic Simulation, NHSquicker and Demand Forecasting (Navonil Mustafee (Exeter) and Stephan Onggo (Trinity College Dublin)

Symbiotic simulation is one of Industry 4.0 technologies that enables a close relationship between a physical system and the simulation model that represents it as its digital twin. Symbiotic simulation is designed to support decision making at the operational levels by making use of real- or near real- time data which are only available after the simulation model has been developed. From the modelling perspective, a symbiotic simulation system comprises a hybrid model that combines simulation, optimization and machine learning models as well as a data acquisition module and an actuator. The actuator is needed when the symbiotic simulation system is designed to directly control the physical system without any human intervention. This talk reviews the components of a symbiotic simulation system from the perspective of hybrid modelling. Examples within health care will be presented including NHSQuicker, demand forecasting for urgent care, and hospital bed management.